In a much maligned speech to Australians on Wednesday about the current state of the world, Prime Minster (PM) Anthony Albanese cautioned the nation against panicking over global unrest, and the flow-on effects.

Ahead of the Easter long weekend, usually a time of carefree revelry and overconsumption, the PM cautioned that the worst was still to come, regardless of the timeline of the conflict in Iran.

“What is clear is that the longer this war goes on, the more significant the impact on the global economy will be. Not just the price of fuel, but everything that relies upon fuel. Literally everything that moves,” said PM Albanese.

“We started seeing those price spikes the day that the Strait of Hormuz closed. And we will still be dealing with these challenges even after it is open. This war may be on the other side of the world, but it’s causing real pain here, for farmers, truckies, small businesses and families.”

The tone of Albanese’s speech indicated that the PM doesn’t want the country to see this crisis as one of pandemic proportions, arguing that, “while there are significant challenges ahead and commonsense changes required, this will not be like Covid…we have learned from that time – and we are deliberately taking a different approach.”

They are words that may be of some comfort for the Food and Beverage industry, which has only just emerged from the effects of lockdowns and supply shocks. However, it is a sector that faces a complex operating environment post covid, shaped by rising input costs, fragile logistics, and changing community behaviour.

The result is an industry that is resilient, but far from comfortable.

In numbers that translates to $173 billion in turnover in 2023–24 (according to the Australian Food and Grocery Council), representing over 32% of total manufacturing output in the country.

At the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that food manufacturing earnings rose 25.1% in 2023–24, a strong signal of output growth, even as costs climbed.

On top of that, consumer demand has stabilised since the pandemic, with the ABS confirming:

• Household spending in January 2026 was up 4.6% year-on-year
• Spending on cafes, restaurants and hotels rose 1.5% in the December 2025 quarter

These numbers reflect that people are dining out, travelling, and buying convenience foods again. However, the nature of demand has changed.

Consumers remain highly price-conscious. Food inflation, while easing, is still present:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 3.1% in the year to February 2026
• Meals out and takeaway food increased 3.5% over the previous year

This is congruent with our research in the Food and Beverage industry, across clients like Haigh’s Chocolate, at Wine Australia, and buy local campaigns. These businesses are having to reimagine their messaging and outputs as cultural changes in consumption (drinking in licensed venues), and economic pressures (cost of living) affect how people spend their money.

After worrying statistics about the decline of wine consumption in the Australian on-premise channel, Wine Australia commissioned Square Holes to undertake research to better understand the evolving role of wine.

Our findings highlighted a cultural shift in behaviours around alcohol consumption nationwide, with patrons driven to more intentional consumption. Wine was regularly viewed by consumers as best aligned with special occasions or around a table with food. It also highlighted the younger consumers (many of which came of drinking age during the pandemic) in particular are value-driven and drawn to experiences that feel purposeful.

In short, we are consuming alcohol less, but when we are consuming, we are doing so consciously and with an eye to special occasions.

With flow on effects from the fuel crisis set to impact our weekly shopping budgets, one way that Australians might look to ease the stress is by going local. With public trust already deeply eroded in supermarket giants like Coles and Woolworths over price gouging, more Australians might make a greater effort to shop at local markets and fruit and veg shops.

In a research project with Green Industries SA, the South Australian public revealed that their supermarket shopping priorities were convenience, quality and price. In metro areas, that usually translates into a preference for locally run fruit and veg and butcher options when time and budget allow, followed by ‘top up’ shops in the big chains like Coles and Woolworths due to proximity and access.

However, that may change as the government shifts its priority to local industry.

Australia’s vulnerability in this current crisis lies in the fact that the country imports more than 90 per cent of its refined fuel. This time has been a wake-up call for the government, with Albanese suggesting a shift in global supply chain thinking to national self-sufficiency in his recent address.

“To make the most of our resources and make more things here. So that Australia is not always the last link in the global supply chain. That instead, we stand on our own two feet,” said Albanese.

In the meantime food and beverage businesses will continue to face:

• Higher wages and labour shortages
• Elevated energy costs
• Increased packaging and ingredient prices
• Ongoing compliance and regulatory expenses

And they are now being compounded by a new variable: fuel insecurity.

Australia’s food and beverage industry has proven its resilience through one of the most disruptive periods in modern history. But resilience in 2026 looks different from what it did before.

The sector is no longer fighting for survival—it is managing complexity.

Growth continues. Demand holds. But beneath the surface, the system depends on fragile inputs: fuel, freight, labour, and cost control. In this environment, success will belong not just to those who can produce and sell—but to those who can adapt, absorb shocks, and keep moving when the system is under pressure.

And the best way to achieve that is through consistent market research that tracks cultural trends, maps consumer behaviours and dives deep into solutions for the future.