How does the US election result affect Australians?
In a statement from the prime minister’s office, PM Anthony Albanese wrote, “Our Government will work closely with the new Trump Administration to realise the benefits of our strong economic partnership.”
“I look forward to talking with President Trump and working with him in the best interests of both our nations.”
Opposition leader, Peter Dutton, praised the US as “an overwhelming force for good in the world” – and big noted the recent AUKUS pact between Australia, the US and the UK.
“May the years ahead be some of the most defining for our Alliance in which … we unleash the defence, industrial and economic opportunities of AUKUS at speed and scale,” Dutton said.
Former prime ministers Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott also jumped at the chance to heap praise on Trump with Morrison telling ABC News that the embattled president, “is like unlike any other politician you will ever come across … I think what he brings now is an assertiveness and a strength to the role, which I think will have a very positive impact on global security issues.”
Meanwhile Abbott tweeted, “Self belief is what the West needs right now and Trump has that in spades.”
But someone who may not be celebrating the return of Trump to office is former PM and current Australian Ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd. Rudd, before becoming ambassador in March 2023, had been critical of Trump, calling him, “the most destructive president in history, ” and “a traitor to the West” on Twitter (X).
“He drags America and democracy through the mud. He thrives on fomenting, not healing, division. He abuses Christianity, church and bible to justify violence,” wrote Rudd.
When confronted with Rudd’s comments in an interview in March this year, Trump stated, “I don’t know much about him. I heard he was a little bit nasty. I hear he’s not the brightest bulb…”
“But if he’s at all hostile, he will not be there long.”
As it stands, Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong has confirmed that Rudd will be staying on as ambassador despite the tension.
1. Economic Impact
- Tariffs and Trade Disruptions: If Trump reintroduces or escalates tariffs, particularly on China, it could strain the Chinese economy. Since China is Australia’s largest trading partner, this may indirectly hurt Australian exports (like iron ore, coal, and agricultural products) and disrupt local industries reliant on stable trade flows with Asia.
- Market Volatility: Trump’s policies could lead to global market fluctuations, potentially affecting the Australian dollar and share market. Australian investors and businesses tied to global markets may see increased volatility and inflation, impacting consumer goods pricing.
2. Security and Defence
- AUKUS and Defence Expectations: Trump has previously called on allies to increase their defence spending. Under his leadership, Australia might face increased pressure to invest more heavily in defence, especially under the AUKUS agreement (Australia, UK, and U.S. security pact) focused on Indo-Pacific security. This could lead to budget reallocations within Australia, potentially impacting social programs.
- China Strategy: Trump’s hardline stance on China aligns with recent Australian defence priorities. However, an intensified U.S.-China rivalry could raise tensions in the Indo-Pacific, potentially increasing regional instability, impacting trade routes, and causing Australians to feel the strain of heightened geopolitical tensions.
3. Diplomatic and Social Dynamics
- Immigration and Travel: Trump’s previous presidency saw strict immigration policies, which affected global travel and visa processes, impacting Australians studying, working, or traveling to the U.S. Increased travel restrictions or visa policy changes could be a consideration again.
- Cultural and Diplomatic Shifts: Under Trump, America’s global image became more isolationist and populist, which strained some alliances. Australia, closely aligned with the U.S., may feel diplomatic pressures to support U.S. policies, even if they don’t align fully with Australia’s broader foreign policy goals.
4. Environmental and Climate Policy
- Climate Change Inaction: Trump’s record on climate change includes withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and rolling back environmental regulations. Australia has faced severe climate-related events, and further global inaction could exacerbate climate risks. A Trump presidency might slow international climate commitments, complicating Australia’s own climate goals and potentially impacting policies, like renewable energy investment.
For Australians, a Trump presidency likely means staring down the barrel of economic challenges from possible trade tensions, potential defence spending shifts, tighter immigration regulations, and a complicated climate policy landscape. While the implications this will have on Australians may vary, we are likely to experience both economic and social ripples, especially if the U.S.-China rivalry continues to intensify.
